2023: Staggering, Unforgiving Plunge in the Dry Bulk Market
Capesize
The first week of 2023 saw a substantial downturn in the dry bulk market due to seasonal factors. The Capesize 5 Timecharter (5TC) routes experienced a significant 30% drop, with rates later stabilizing to close the week at $12,543, 35% lower than last year. While Atlantic trade remained sluggish, west Australia to Qingdao trade dropped below the mid $7s. The Capesize market’s next move depends on demand and cargo enquiries before the Lunar New Year.
Panamax
Post-Christmas, the Panamax market started slowly, experiencing a downturn due to a demand deficit across all basins. Despite minor improvements in South America, excess tonnage and a high ballast count from Southeast Asia weakened the market. An overwhelmingly bearish outlook was evident, with an $8,000 NoPac round trip deal for an 82,000-dwt delivery in China. The norm became Aps and ballast bonus deals with varying rates. However, there were cases of $16,500 + $650,000 deals for index types/dates. A scrubber-fitted 81,000-dwt delivery in China was fixed for five to eight months at $16,250.
Ultramax/Supramax
The post-holiday week offered little positivity for shipowners as Pacific and Atlantic regions grappled with scarce fresh enquiries and an excess of available tonnage. The prevailing sentiment suggests this trend might continue until after the Lunar New Year. Some activity was observed from the US Gulf and the Mediterranean, with rates of $18,000 and $10,000 for specific voyages. However, South America and Asia experienced continued rate pressure due to excess cargo. Two notable deals included an $8,000 trip from Kwangyang to the Arabian Gulf and a $3,000 Indonesian round voyage. The timeline for absorbing the excess tonnage remains uncertain.
Handysize
Despite the return of many post-holiday, market sentiment remained negative due to further losses in both basins. The lack of enquiries saw rates drop in East Coast South America, with notable deals at $11,000 and $15,250. In the Mediterranean, an agreement was secured at $7,500 for the first 40 days and $10,000 for steel transportation. A handysize vessel was reportedly fixed at $8,000 for a sulphur cargo from the Baltic to Casablanca, but details are sparse. Asian activity remained low, with a $5,100 deal from Southeast Asia to China and a rumoured low $7,000s deal for a wood pellet round voyage from South Korea via Prince Rupert.
